According to the analysis ofWood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, global wind capacity additions will average 71 GW per year in 2019-2023, and 76 GW in 2024-2028.
As noted in the report,‘Update of the prospects of the world wind energy market: second quarter of 2019’, Wood Mackenzie has improved its global outlook for wind power by 11 GW from 2019 to 2028, an increase of 1.5% over the previous quarter.
Commenting on the forecast, Luke Lewandowski, director of Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, said: “A 5GW upgrade in the global offshore sector will produce 129 GW of new capacity and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26%. Overall, the outlook for global wind energy is positive and continues to thrive due to both the economic and social benefits.
The US wind market benefits from tax credits
The US market has been updated by 16% in the quarter mainly due to a 3.8 GW update in 2021 alone.
“Buyers are mobilizing to capitalize on the Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC) before the full value incentive expires in 2020 and then gradually tapers off. Developers who qualify for wind installations in 2017 are eligible for 80% of the total loan amount, spurring the growth of the US wind market.
A modest 1% QoQ update in Latin America is due to short-term updates in Brazil and Mexico. Demand in the Brazilian free market should positively impact expectations from 2020 to 2022, while an increase in demand for C&I in Mexico will support a record year in 2019.
Prospects for Europe are bleak as sub-regions downgraded
“Northern Europe has updated our forecast by 6%. This should offset an update to Europe's bleak outlook as the other sub-regions combine for a 2.2 GW decline.
“Problems obtaining permits and low subscription for onshore wind tenders in Germany and France have impeded growth. However, growing interest in unsubsidized projects and proliferating C&I demand across Northern Europe support a modest 0.6% improvement for Europe in this quarter's forecast over the previous one. '
Bad news in Africa, better in Asia
Slow project development due to political instability, immature support mechanisms and increased competition from solar energy has resulted in a 2% reduction in Africa.
“Africa's goals are greener today than ever. Renewable energy is attractive within the region, as wind and solar energy projects can be built much more quickly than other energy sources. However, as solar energy is getting cheaper and cheaper, Africa's wind market faces stiff competition, ”said Lewandowski.
On the other hand, the terms of the policies in onshore and offshore wind in China support an increase of 2.9 GW in the quarter in the country. “Onshore wind developers are rushing to comply with a new policy that requires projects to be commissioned by the end of 2020 to capitalize on Feeding Rates (FIT) before a subsidy-free era begins. Offshore wind developers must commission projects before the end of 2021 if they want to maintain the current level of FIT aid to offshore wind. "
However, the story is not entirely positive across the APAC region. Current market conditions in India have hurt the region's short-term outlook, resulting in a 4% decline. Government-imposed maximum auction prices and start-up delays for awarded projects have significantly lowered expectations for short-term growth in India, where a 24% decline is forecast from 2019 to 2022.
"In addition, reliability concerns in Thailand have led to a 37% downgrade to the 10-year outlook as the government's focus has shifted to other technologies," concluded Lewandowski.
With information from: